Influences on Violence Prediction: A Self-Assessment Guide
| Evaluator-Specific Influences |
| Have I had any past adverse consequences from making inaccurate predictions? |
| Have I ever had an evaluee commit suicide? Homicide? |
| What are my attitudes on sentencing? Toward the criminal justice system? |
| What is my level of confidence in conducting risk assessments? |
| How strong is my need for approval? My need to be “right”? |
| At any time, did I think what it would mean for me if I was wrong? |
| Have colleagues or supervisors ever commented on personal attitudes that seem to affect my work? |
| Case-Specific Influences |
| Personal attitudes |
| What biases do I have toward people who commit this crime? People who come from this background? This kind of victim? |
| At any time, did I find myself feeling emotionally involved in this case? Feeling excessively emotionally detached? |
| What kinds of reactions/feelings did I have toward the evaluee? |
| Could the confirmation bias have been in play? Did I review my notes over the course of the case to combat this? |
| Could I have fallen subject to illusory correlations between evaluee responses and risk? |
| Ambiguity/uncertainty |
| What would it mean for me if this person did poorly upon release? Was violent upon release? What would it mean for my employer? |
| As I was interpreting the data, was there any time that I paused and was uncertain about making a decision or conclusion? |
| Was I sufficiently concerned that I consulted with a colleague or shared information with a significant other? Should I have consulted? |
| What was my gut instinct in this case? Did I follow it? Did I question it? |
| Case limitations |
| What are the limitations of my findings? Are they the standard limitations of risk evaluations or were there unique ones? |
| What would a good lawyer ask me on cross examination? How would I answer? |
| External forces |
| Am I aware of any external pressures on the outcomes or conclusion of this case? |
| How much has this case been in the media? How has it been portrayed? |
| Context-Specific Influences |
| Are there implicit norms where I work? Do they have a component of conservative prediction? |
| Do co-workers talk in terms of consequences to themselves? |
| Is there an institutional policy that outlines how to deal with ambiguity/uncertainty? That outlines my liability coverage? |