Table 5

Combined Observed Serious Prison Assaults Following Predictions of Future Violence by State (Violence Predicted as Probable) and Defense (Violence Predicted as Improbable) Mental Health Experts

Predicted OutcomeObserved Prison Experience
Serious Assaults (n = 9)No Serious Assault (n = 219)
Predicted probable* (n = 155)True positive 8 (5.2%)False positive 147 (94.8%)
Predicted improbable (n = 73)False negative 1 (1.4%)True negative 72 (98.6%)
  • * Adapted from Edens JF, Buffington-Vollum JK, Keilen A, et al. Predictions of future dangerousness in capital murder trials: is it time to “disinvent the wheel.” Law Hum Behav 29:55–86, 2005.

  • Data in parentheses reflect prevalence.

  • This solitary infraction involved an attempted serious assault rather than an accomplished serious assault.