y | r | n | π̂y and 95% Credible Intervals | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mary's Estimates | Kathy's Estimates* | |||||
1 | 0 | 11 | 0.042 | [0.000–0.200] | 0.039 | [0.022–0.063] |
2 | 6 | 71 | 0.090 | [0.036–0.166] | 0.068 | [0.044–0.010] |
3 | 12 | 101 | 0.123 | [0.067–0.192] | 0.118 | [0.086–0.155] |
4 | 19 | 111 | 0.174 | [0.110–0.249] | 0.197 | [0.159–0.237] |
5 | 41 | 116 | 0.355 | [0.271–0.443] | 0.310 | [0.270–0.352] |
6 | 42 | 96 | 0.438 | [0.341–0.537] | 0.453 | [0.401–0.505] |
7 | 41 | 74 | 0.553 | [0.441–0.663] | 0.603 | [0.535–0.670] |
8 | 22 | 29 | 0.750 | [0.584–0.885] | 0.736 | [0.656–0.806] |
9 | 9 | 9 | 0.950 | [0.762–1.000] | 0.835 | [0.761–0.895] |
r, number of Denver Pennies; y, number of years before Dorothy's death.
↵* Inferences are based on 25,000 iterations of two WinBUGS chains that converged rapidly (after 100 updates). The first 5,000 values from each chain were discarded, and inferences were made on the final 20,000 values in each chain, thinned at an interval of 20.