Predictive validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch sample of treated sex offenders

Law Hum Behav. 2004 Jun;28(3):235-51. doi: 10.1023/b:lahu.0000029137.41974.eb.

Abstract

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Actuarial Analysis
  • Adult
  • Child
  • Child Abuse, Sexual / prevention & control
  • Child Abuse, Sexual / statistics & numerical data*
  • Forecasting
  • Forensic Psychiatry / instrumentation*
  • Forensic Psychiatry / methods
  • Hospitals, Psychiatric
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Netherlands / epidemiology
  • Prisoners / psychology*
  • Probability
  • Rape / prevention & control
  • Rape / statistics & numerical data*
  • Recurrence
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment / methods*
  • Risk Assessment / statistics & numerical data
  • Violence / prevention & control
  • Violence / statistics & numerical data*