Predicting recidivism amongst sexual offenders: a multi-site study of static-2002

Law Hum Behav. 2010 Jun;34(3):198-211. doi: 10.1007/s10979-009-9180-1. Epub 2009 Jun 18.

Abstract

The predictive accuracy of Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Corrections Research User Report No. 2003-01), 2003) was examined in eight samples of sexual offenders (five Canadian, one U.S., one U.K., one Danish; total sample of 3,034). Static-2002 showed moderate ability to rank order the risk for sexual, violent and general (any) recidivism (AUCs of .68, .71, and .70, respectively), and was more accurate than Static-99. These findings support the use of Static-2002 in applied assessments. There were substantial differences across samples, however, in the observed sexual recidivism rates. These differences present new challenges to evaluators wishing to use actuarial risk scores to estimate absolute recidivism rates.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Prospective Studies
  • ROC Curve
  • Recurrence
  • Sex Offenses / statistics & numerical data*
  • Surveys and Questionnaires*