Results of Stepwise Regression Models Predicting Recidivism
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B (SE) | 95% CI | X2 | B (SE) | 95% CI | X2 | B (SE) | 95% CI | X2 | B (SE) | 95% CI | X2 | |
| Demographic Factors | ||||||||||||
| Sex (Male) | −0.46 (0.24) | −0.92, 0.01 | 3.71† | −0.39 (0.23) | −0.84, 0.06 | 2.89† | −0.29 (0.23) | −0.74, 0.16 | 1.61 | −0.48 (0.23) | −0.93, -0.03 | 4.44* |
| Age | −0.12 (0.08) | −0.27, 0.02 | 2.67 | −0.17 (0.74) | −0.31, -0.02 | 5.22* | −0.13 (0.07) | −0.28, 0.01 | 3.16† | −0.22 (0.07) | −0.36, -0.07 | 8.47** |
| Race/Ethnicitya | ||||||||||||
| Black non-Latinx | 0.82 (0.38) | 0.08, 1.56 | 4.70* | 0.68 (0.37) | −0.05, 1.40 | 3.35† | 0.72 (0.36) | 0.01, 1.43 | 3.93* | 0.96 (0.37) | 0.24, 1.68 | 6.82** |
| Other non-Latinx | −0.46 (0.48) | −1.40, 0.49 | 0.90 | −0.53 (0.48) | −1.47, 0.40 | 1.25 | −0.46 (0.47) | −1.38, 0.46 | 0.97 | −0.08 (0.47) | −1.01, 0.84 | 0.03 |
| Multi-racial non-Latinx | 0.54 (0.45) | −0.33, 1.42 | 1.49 | 0.76 (0.44) | −0.09, 1.62 | 3.06† | 0.78 (0.43) | −0.07, 1.62 | 3.27† | 1.12 (0.43) | 0.29, 1.96 | 6.94** |
| Latinx | 0.50 (0.26) | −0.00, 1.01 | 3.83* | 0.30 (0.26) | −0.21, 0.81 | 1.34 | 0.33 (0.26) | −0.17, 0.83 | 1.68 | 0.63 (0.26) | 0.12, 1.13 | 5.96* |
| Out-of-home placement | 0.53 (0.35) | −0.15, 1.20 | 2.32 | 0.35 (0.34) | −0.32, 1.02 | 1.05 | 0.29 (0.34) | −0.37, 0.95 | 0.74 | 0.37 (0.32) | −0.27, 1.00 | 1.26 |
| Legal Factors | ||||||||||||
| Offense Type (Delinquent) | – | – | – | 0.84 (0.23) | 0.38, 1.30 | 12.87*** | 0.67 (0.24) | 0.20, 1.13 | 7.91** | 0.81 (0.23) | 0.35, 1.27 | 11.99** |
| Psychiatric Factors | ||||||||||||
| Inpatient Hospitalization | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.10 (0.33) | −0.55, 0.74 | 0.09 | 0.17 (0.32) | −0.46, 0.79 | 0.27 |
| Internalizing Problems | – | – | – | – | – | – | −0.78 (0.35) | −1.47, -0.09 | 4.91* | −0.75 (0.35) | −1.44, -0.06 | 4.54* |
| Externalizing Problems | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.54 (0.26) | 0.03, 1.06 | 4.25* | 0.54 (0.26) | 0.03, 1.05 | 4.37* |
| Substance Use Factors | ||||||||||||
| Alcohol-Related Problems | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.17 (0.39) | 0.42, 1.93 | 9.29** |
| Cannabis-Related Problems | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.43 (0.36) | −0.28, 1.14 | 1.43 |
| Model Fit | ||||||||||||
| Deviance | 275.25 | 277.34 | 280.96 | 280.01 | ||||||||
| Pearson X2 | 382.30 | 454.52 | 477.70 | 323.71 | ||||||||
| df | 352 | 351 | 348 | 346 | ||||||||