Combined Observed Serious Prison Assaults Following Predictions of Future Violence by State (Violence Predicted as Probable) and Defense (Violence Predicted as Improbable) Mental Health Experts
| Predicted Outcome | Observed Prison Experience | |
|---|---|---|
| Serious Assaults (n = 9) | No Serious Assault (n = 219) | |
| Predicted probable* (n = 155) | True positive 8 (5.2%)† | False positive 147 (94.8%) |
| Predicted improbable (n = 73) | False negative 1 (1.4%)‡ | True negative 72 (98.6%) |
* Adapted from Edens JF, Buffington-Vollum JK, Keilen A, et al. Predictions of future dangerousness in capital murder trials: is it time to “disinvent the wheel.” Law Hum Behav 29:55–86, 2005.
† Data in parentheses reflect prevalence.
‡ This solitary infraction involved an attempted serious assault rather than an accomplished serious assault.