Sexually Violent Predators: The Risky Enterprise of Risk Assessment

Article Figures & Data

Table 1

Fulfillment of SVP Standards by Generic Risk-Assessment Measures

Sequential Steps in SVP Determinations	Risk Measures
Sequential Steps in SVP Determinations	HCR-20	SVR-20	Static-99	RRASOR	MnSost-R	VRAG	SORAG	PCL-R	PPG
Step 1
Assess specific mental disorders?	V. limited	V. limited	No	No	V. limited	V. limited	Limited	No	No
Assess specific personality disorders?	Limited	V. limited	No	No	No	Limited	Limited	No	No
Assess specific mental abnormalities?	V. limited	V. limited	No	No	No	V. limited	Limited	V. limited	V. limited
Step 2
Assess volitional impairment?	No	No	No	No	No	No	No	No	No
Step 3
Assess volitional impairment arising directly from the clinical condition?	No	No	No	No	No	No	No	No	No
Step 4
Predict general sexual recidivism?	No	Mixed	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Limited	Limited	Limited	Limited
Predict violent sexual recidivism?	No	Partially^*	V. limited	V. limited	Moderate	Limited	V. limited	V. limited	Limited
Step 5
Establish link between volitional impairment and sexual recidivism?	No	No	No	No	No	No	No	No	No
Summary
Number of steps minimally addressed^†	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	1

V. limited, very limited coverage or validation; limited, limited coverage or validation; mixed, mixed or divergent results; moderate, some coverage or validation.
* While predicting sexual violence, the SVR-20 uses an overly broad classification that includes sex offenses that are not necessarily violent: obscene letters or phone calls, distribution of pornography, voyeurism, and theft of fetish objects.
† Very limited coverage or validation offers so little data that it is not considered as even “minimal” in satisfying any individual step.