Predicting the Likelihood of Future Sexual Recidivism: Pilot Study Findings From a California Sex Offender Risk Project and Cross-Validation of the Static-99

Article Figures & Data

Table 1

Sexual Recidivism Markers

Item Number	Risk Factor	Codes	Score
Sexual deviance
1	Prior sex offenses (before 1989/90 release; number of episodes of sex offending: arrest only, prison, jail, probation, parole violation, prison rules violation excluding consensual sex)	1 = one prior sex offense	1
		2 = two prior sex offenses	2
		3 = three or more sex offenses	2
2	Unrelated victim-any (all sex offense information, charged/uncharged before 1989/90)	No = 0)	0
		Yes = 1	1
3	Stranger victim-any (all sex offense information charged/uncharged before 1989/90)	No = 0	0
		Yes = 1	1
4	Multiple victim types (two or more victim types, e.g., child and adolescent, male and female, for any of the sex offenses, charged or uncharged before 1989/90 release)	No = 0	0
		Yes = 1	1
5	Number of total victims ≥3 (charged and uncharged; information before 1989/90 release)	No = 0	0
		Yes = 1	1
6	Meets minimal time range criteria A for DSM-IV paraphilia before 1989/90 release (at least six months of deviant sexual behavior)	No = 0	0
		Yes = 1	1
Criminality
7	Number of prison terms (before 1989/90 release)	Low = 1; score, 0	0
		Moderate = 2–3; score, 1	1
		High ≥ 4; score, 2	2
8	More than one parole violation (before 1989/90 release	No = 0	0
		Yes = 1	1
9	Juvenile delinquency	No = 0	0
		Yes = 1	1
Aggression
10	Aggression toward victims (before 1989/90 release); beating, maiming, strangulation, and/or stabbing	No = 0	0
		Yes = 1	1

Table 2

Demographic Characteristics and Criminal History of Pilot Sample

Table 3

Offender Characteristics at Time of First Sexual Offense

	Pilot Sample, n (%)(N = 137)
Age, y
<20	37 (27)
20–29	83 (61)
30–39	16 (12)
40–49	1 (1)
Marital Status
Single	90 (66)
Married/cohabiting	22 (16)
Divorced/widowed	4 (3)
Unknown	21 (15)
Employment
Stable	12 (9)
Unstable	42 (31)
Unemployed	43 (31)
Student	7 (5)
Retired/disabled	2 (1)
Unknown	31 (22)
Number of charges
1	38 (28)
2	45 (33)
3 or more	51 (37)
Unknown	3 (2)
Convicted charges
None	6 (4)
1	59 (43)
2	43 (31)
3 or more	29 (21)
Community supervision status
On parole or probation	4 (3)

Table 4

Cox Regression Coefficients for Sexual Deviance Markers, With Equation Variables

	B	SE	Wald	df	p	Exp(B)
Five Years after Release
Stranger	.371	.421	.777	1	.378	1.449
No relation	1.214	.933	1.692	1	.193	3.367
Multiple types	2.090	.532	15.411	1	.000	8.087
Three or more victims	−1.023	1.068	.918	1	.338	.359
Prior sex offenses	.367	.494	.553	1	.457	1.444
Paraphilia	.123	.713	.030	1	.863	1.131
Ten Years after Release
Stranger	.008	.334	.001	1	.980	1.008
No relation	.475	.748	.403	1	.525	1.608
Multiple types	1.966	.464	17.949	1	.000	7.145
Three or more victims	−.604	.778	.603	1	.437	.547
Prior sex offenses	.510	.409	1.560	1	.212	1.666
Paraphilia	.496	.535	.860	1	.354	1.643

Table 5

Cox Regression Coefficients for Criminality Markers, With Equation Variables

	B	SE	Wald	df	p	Exp(B)
Five Years After Release
Prison	.712	.285	6.244	1	.012	2.038
Parole	1.769	.551	10.313	1	.001	5.865
Juvenile	−.718	.399	3.231	1	.072	.488
Ten+ Years after Release
Prison	.720	.225	10.215	1	.001	2.054
Parole	1.443	.519	7.743	1	.005	4.234
Juvenile	−.616	.323	3.635	1	.057	.540

Table 6

AUC Values for Sexual Recidivism, Derived From Significant Predictive Marker and Combines Variables

Table 7

Static-99 Scores and Sexual Recidivism at 5 and 10 Years in a Pilot Sample, Compared With Those in a Developmental Sample

Static-99Score	Sample Sizen (%)	Pilot StudySexual Reoffense Rates		Hanson and Thornton⁹Static-99 Sexual Reoffense Rates
Static-99Score	Sample Sizen (%)	5 y	10y	5 y	10 y
0	2 (1.5)	0	0	.05	.11
1	1 (0.7)	0	0	.06	.07
2	17 (12.4)	.12	.18	.09	.13
3	28 (20.4)	.21	.36	.12	.14
4	36 (26.3)	.03	.17	.26	.31
5	24 (17.50)	.21	.33	.33	.38
6	13 (9.5)	.08	.15	.39^*	.45^*
7	7 (5.1)	.29	.71
8	6 (4.4)	.67	.67
9	2 (1.5)	.50	.50
10	1 (0.7)	1.00	1.00
Average	137 (100%)	.31	.40
4.28