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OtherREGULAR ARTICLE

Improbable Predictions at Capital Sentencing: Contrasting Prison Violence Outcomes

Mark D. Cunningham and Jon R. Sorensen
Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law Online March 2010, 38 (1) 61-72;
Mark D. Cunningham
PhD
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Jon R. Sorensen
PhD
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    Disciplinary rules violations by age at commitment.

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    Table 1

    Descriptive Characteristics of Capital Murderers

    CharacteristicState(n = 30)Federal(n = 43)Total(N = 73)
    Testimony
        Sentencing phase testimony70.0% (21)72.1% (31)71.2% (52)
        Written report only30.0% (9)27.9% (12)28.8% (21)
    Type of findings
        Risk assessment93.3% (28)69.8% (30)79.5% (58)
        Risk-related6.7% (2)30.2% (13)20.5% (15)
    Risk rating (when present)
        Below base rate55.0% (11)62.1% (18)59.2% (29)
        At base rate25.0% (5)27.6% (8)26.5% (13)
        Above base rate20.0% (4)10.3% (3)14.3% (7)
    Sentence
        Life66.7% (20)53.5% (23)58.9% (43)
        Death33.3% (10)46.5% (20)41.1% (30)
    Education level (when available)
        Less than high school33.3% (3)85.7% (36)76.5% (39)
        GED/diploma66.7% (6)14.3% (6)23.5% (12)
    Age at commitment, y (range)34.5 (21.5–59.1)32.2 (20.2–56.8)33.1 (20.2–59.1)
    Time at risk, y (range)4.6 (0.9–9.9)4.2 (0.3–10.7)4.4 (0.3–10.7)
    • Unless otherwise noted, data are expressed as the percentage of the subgroup or total group (number of inmates).

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    Table 2

    Overview of Potentially Violent Disciplinary Rules Violations Committed by Incarcerated Capital Murderers

    Disciplinary ViolationActs, nInmates Involved, %Annual Rate per 1,000
    Capital Murderers(n = 73)Federal USP 2001–2005(n = 18,561)
    Serious assaults/attempts1 (0)1.43.1 (0.0)10.1
    Escape-related/attempts31.49.40.4
    Fighting12 (11)13.737.7 (35.5)37.8
    Possession of a weapon6 (3)5.418.8 (9.7)32.8
    Riot-inciting11.43.11.2
    Threatening bodily harm78.222.020.7
    Lesser/minor assaults13 (8)12.340.8 (25.8)41.8
    • Data in parentheses reflect findings when an outlying observation is removed.

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    Table 3

    Disciplinary Rules Violations Committed by Incarcerated Capital Murderers, Aggregated by Level of Seriousness

    Level of DisciplinaryViolationActs, nInmates Involved, %Annual Rate per 1,000
    Capital Murderers(n = 73)Federal USP 2001–2005(n = 18,561)
    Total violations202 (184)54.8%634.2 (594.3)620.8
    Potentially violent infractions*43 (33)27.4%135.0 (106.6)146.9
    Assaultive violations†14 (8)12.3%44.0 (25.8)53.4
    Serious assaults/attempts1 (0)1.4%3.1 (0.0)10.1
    Assaults resulting in moderate‡ or major injuries§00.0%0.04.7
    • Data in parentheses reflect findings when an outlying observation is removed.

    • * Potentially violent violations include: threatening bodily harm, possession of a weapon, inciting to riot, escape-related misconduct or escape attempt, mutual fighting, minor assaults (including either creating apprehension of harm or resulting in actual physical contact), and serious assaults or attempted serious assaults.

    • † Assaultive violations include: minor assaults, attempted serious assaults, and serious assaults.

    • ‡ Moderate injury results in admission to a hospital with a non-life threatening injury.

    • § Major injury results in admission to a hospital with life-threatening injury.

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    Table 4

    Logistic Regression Model Used to Predict Serious or Potentially Violent Disciplinary Violations

    PredictorVariablesβSEWalddfpExp(β)95.0% CI for Exp(β)
    LowerUpper
    Level, state0.4100.6100.4521.5021.5070.4564.982
    Sentence, life0.2210.6470.1161.7331.2470.3514.428
    Age at commitment−0.0940.0444.4571.0350.9100.8340.993
    Time at risk0.2380.1164.2061.0341.2681.0111.592
    Constant0.4201.7660.0571.8121.522
    • View popup
    Table 5

    Combined Observed Serious Prison Assaults Following Predictions of Future Violence by State (Violence Predicted as Probable) and Defense (Violence Predicted as Improbable) Mental Health Experts

    Predicted OutcomeObserved Prison Experience
    Serious Assaults (n = 9)No Serious Assault (n = 219)
    Predicted probable* (n = 155)True positive 8 (5.2%)†False positive 147 (94.8%)
    Predicted improbable (n = 73)False negative 1 (1.4%)‡True negative 72 (98.6%)
    • * Adapted from Edens JF, Buffington-Vollum JK, Keilen A, et al. Predictions of future dangerousness in capital murder trials: is it time to “disinvent the wheel.” Law Hum Behav 29:55–86, 2005.

    • † Data in parentheses reflect prevalence.

    • ‡ This solitary infraction involved an attempted serious assault rather than an accomplished serious assault.

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Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law Online: 38 (1)
Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law Online
Vol. 38, Issue 1
March 2010
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Improbable Predictions at Capital Sentencing: Contrasting Prison Violence Outcomes
Mark D. Cunningham, Jon R. Sorensen
Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law Online Mar 2010, 38 (1) 61-72;

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Improbable Predictions at Capital Sentencing: Contrasting Prison Violence Outcomes
Mark D. Cunningham, Jon R. Sorensen
Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law Online Mar 2010, 38 (1) 61-72;
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