A Methodology for Predicting the Effects of Changes in Civil Commitment Decision Making

  • Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law Online
  • March 1986,
  • 14
  • (1)
  • 71-80;

Abstract

We review a three-step civil commitment model and formulas for calculating the probability of release from commitment and the relative importance of the three steps in determining the outcome. New formulas are developed which enable predictions to be made about the effects of changes on the outcome of the three steps on the release probability. With the use of data from Oregon's civil commitment process, we present an example of the application of the methodology and conclude with a discussion of its major administrative and research implications.

Footnotes

  • Dr. Faulkner is associate professor and director of education, Department of Psychiatry, OHSU, Portland, OR. Dr. McFarland is assistant professor and Milbank Scholar, Department of Psychiatry, OHSU. Dr. Bloom is professor and acting chairman, Department of Psychiatry, OHSU. Mr. Stern is a mental health specialist, Oregon State Mental Division, Salem, OR. Address reprint requests to Dr. Faulkner, Department of Psychiatry, OHSU, 3181 SW Sam Jackson Park Rd., Portland, OR 97201.

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