Using Base Rates and Correlational Data to Supplement Clinical Risk Assessments

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Figure 1.
Relationship between age and commission of violent disciplinary infractions.
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Figure 2.
Age and the rate of injurious staff assaults and homicides.
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Figure 3.
Prevalence of serious rule violations among incarcerated capital murderers in comparison to Defendant's expected likelihood.

Table 1

Description of Variables for the Sample of Incarcerated Capital Murderers (N = 1,962)

Variables	Mean	S.D.	N	Percent
Predictors
Age on 9/1/2007	36.4	9.8
Educational attainment	8.2	3.9
Prior prison incarceration			537	27.4%
Gang affiliation			329	16.8%
Outcomes
Potential violence			302	15.4%
Assaultive infractions			91	4.6%
Injurious assaults			24	1.2%

Table 2

Logistic Regression Models Predicting Violent Disciplinary Misconduct

Predictor Variables	Potential Violence			Assaultive Infractions			Injurious Assaults
Predictor Variables	b	s.e	Exp(b)	b	s.e	Exp(b)	b	s.e	Exp(b)
Age on 9/1/2007	−.061	(.011)	.941^***	−.064	(.020)	.938^***	−.075	(.040)	.928^*
Educational attainment	−.035	(.017)	.965^*	−.041	(.028)	.960^†	−.002	(.056)	.998
Prior prison incarceration	.410	(.161)	1.506^**	.874	(.261)	2.333^***	1.050	(.490)	2.859^*
Gang affiliation	.487	(.154)	1.627^***	.641	(.243)	1.898^**	.646	(.457)	1.908^†
Time served control	−.011	(.015)	.989	−.023	(.028)	.978	.029	(.052)	1.030
Constant	.569	(.354)	1.766	−.760	(.611)	.468	−2.572	(1.234)	.076^*
Nagelkerke r²	.078^***			.076^***			.045^*
Model AUC	.668^*** (CI = .636 − .700)			.699^*** (CI = .647 – .750)			.706^*** (CI = .605 – .807)